Keynote Speakers

Maíra Aguiar is a Research Associate Professor in Mathematical Biology and the leader of the MTB group at BCAM – Basque Center for Applied Mathematics in Bilbao, Spain. With expertise in biology and mathematical modeling, her research focuses on the nonlinear dynamics of infectious diseases and the development of predictive tools to enhance public health responses.

She is particularly interested in how climate change, human mobility, and vector ecology influence the spread of vector-borne diseases. Her current work includes modeling disease transmission risks in non-endemic regions, examining the effects of environmental and anthropogenic factors, and creating early warning systems to improve public health preparedness.

Within-Host Dynamics of Dengue: Insights and Pathways to Population-Level Modeling

With over one-third of the global population at risk, dengue fever poses a significant public health challenge. The disease is caused by four antigenically distinct but related serotypes, and its severity is closely tied to the individual's immunological status, seronegative or seropositive, prior to infection. While primary dengue infections are often mild or asymptomatic, secondary infections with a heterologous serotype significantly increase the risk of severe disease due to the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) process.

We present a modeling framework to capture the dynamics of dengue immune responses mediated by antibodies. Our model reproduces the viral load and antibody production dynamics observed in primary and secondary infections, aligning with findings from empirical immunology studies. This framework lays the foundation for future extensions to explore the interplay between within-host immune responses [1-3] and population-level disease dynamics [4]. Ultimately, such advancements could inform strategies to evaluate the impact of imperfect dengue vaccines and other public health interventions.


[1] Anam, V., Guerrero, B.V, Srivastav A.K., Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M. (2024). Within-host models unravelling
the dynamics of dengue reinfections. Infectious Disease Modelling, 9(2) : 458-473.

[2] Anam, A., Sebayang, A.A., Fahlena, H., Knopoff, D., Stollenwerk, N., Soewono, E., Aguiar, M. (2022).  Modeling dengue immune responses mediated by antibodies: Insights on the biological parameters to describe dengue infections. Computational and Mathematical Methods, Article 8283239.

[3] Sebayang, A.A., Fahlena, H., Anam, V., Knopoff, D., Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar,
M., Soewono, E. (2021). Modeling Dengue Immune Responses Mediated by Antibodies: A Qualitative Study. Biology 10:941.

[4] Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Kooi, B.W., Stollenwerk, N. (2011). The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing differences between primary and secondary infections: complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 289, 181-196.