BCAM-UPV/EHU Seminars on Applied Statistics: Who will form the government? KOALA (coalition analysis): A new strategy for analysing opinion polls

Fecha: Vie, Mayo 24 2019

Hora: 13:00

Ponentes: Helmut Küchenhoff

Common election poll reporting is often misleading as sample uncertainty is addressed insufficiently or not covered at all. Furthermore, main interest usually lies beyond the simple party shares. In multi-party electoral systems like in Spain or in Germany, the main question is, who will be able to form the government in coalition with other parties. In the talk, I will present and discuss new strategies for communicating results of election polls. We propose shifting the focus towards the reporting of survey-based probabilities for specific events of interest. An approach for multi-party electoral systems, focusing on probabilities of coalition majorities will be presented. Then, the probabilities, e.g. for a majority of a coalition between PSOE and U. Podemos or PP and C´s and others, is of interest. A Monte Carlo approach based on a Bayesian Multinomial-Dirichlet model is used for estimation. We also introduce visualization techniques that facilitate a more adequate depiction of relevant quantities as well as respective uncertainties.

For German election polls, we present our results on our web page based on polls from 8 providers with automatic update after new poll releases:
Web page (in german) : https://koala.stat.uni-muenchen.de/ 
Twitter (in german): https://twitter.com/KOALA_LMU 
Paper (in English) : https://arxiv.org/pdf/1807.09665.pdf 

Click to see the poster


 Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (Germany)

Ponentes confirmados:

Helmut Küchenhoff