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+34 946 567 842
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+34 946 567 843
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maguiar@bcamath.org
Information of interest
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Condition-specific mortality risk can explain differences in COVID-19 case fatality ratios around the globe
Aguiar, M.
; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-09)
Objectives With COVID-19 infections resulting in death according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing disease severity, the objective of this study is to estimate the condition-specific ...
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Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID‑19 post‑lockdown dynamics
Aguiar, M.; BidaurrazagaVan‑Dierdonc, J.; Mar, J.; Cusimano, N.; Knopoff, D.A.; Anam, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (2021-07-06)
As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an ...
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Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics of COVID-19: The Case Study of Italy and Spain
Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2022-02-13)
In December 2019, a severe respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in China and spread rapidly around the globe. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization ...
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Effect of General Cross-Immunity Protection and Antibody- Dependent Enhancement in Dengue Dynamics
Steindorf, V; Oliva, S.; Wu, J.; Aguiar, M. (2022-02-13)
A mathematical model to describe the dynamic of a multiserotype infectious disease at the population level is studied. Applied to dengue fever epidemiology, we analyse a mathematical model with time delay to describe the ...
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The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study
Stollenwerk, N.; Estadilla, C. D. S.; Mar, J.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Blasco-Aguado, R.; Aguiar, M. (2023-03-10)
Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy (VE) is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact. COVID-19 ...
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Ethics of a partially effective dengue vaccine: Lessons from the Philippines
Halstead, B.S.; Katzelnick, L.C.; Russell, P.K.; Markoff, L.; Aguiar, M.; Dans, L.R.; Dans A , L. (2020-07)
Dengvaxia, a chimeric yellow fever tetravalent dengue vaccine developed by SanofiPasteur is widely licensed in dengue-endemic countries. In a large cohort study Dengvaxia was found to partially protect children who had ...
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The Impact of Serotype Cross-Protection on Vaccine Trials: DENVax as a Case Study
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-11)
There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease ...
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Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: a 10-year systematic review
Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Blyuss, K.; Estadilla, C. D. S.; Guerrero, B.; Knopoff, D.A.; Kooi, B. W.; Srivastav, A. K.; Steindorf, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (2022-02-15)
Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological ...
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Modeling COVID-19: Challenges and results
Aguiar, M. (2020-10)
Weird times we are living in. While lots of technological, medical and scientific advances are generated in a short period of time, we are now fighting a pandemic, trying to stop the spread of a new virus that has not only ...
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Modeling dengue immune responses mediated by antibodies: A qualitative study
Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Anam, V.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Soewono, E. (2021-09-01)
Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne infection and a major international public health concern. With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection around the world, disease severity is influenced by the immunological ...
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Modeling Dengue Immune Responses Mediated by Antibodies: Insights on the Biological Parameters to Describe Dengue Infections
Anam, V.; Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N.; Soewono, E.; Aguiar, M. (2022-03-18)
Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne disease, a significant global health concern, with more than one third of the world population at risk of acquiring the disease. Caused by 4 antigenically distinct but related virus ...
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Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models
Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Kooi, B. W.; Aguiar, M. (2022-10-04)
Modeling insights for epidemiological scenarios characterized by chaotic dynamics have been largely unexplored. A rigorous analysis of such systems are essential for a real predictive power and a more accurate disease ...
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Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain
Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Aguiar, M. (2022-07-13)
Declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the globe. With eventually substantial global underestimation of infection, by the end of March 2022, more than 470 million ...
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Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response
Aguiar, M.; Ortuondo, E.M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar J; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-10)
In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so‐called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID‐19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working ...
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Modelling Holling type II functional response in deterministic and stochastic food chain models with mass conservation
Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Kooi, B. W. (2022-03-01)
The Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model is the building block in modeling food chain, food webs and ecosystems. There are a number of hidden assumptions involved in the derivation. For instance the prey population ...
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A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination
Aguiar, M.; Dosi, G.; Knopoff, D.A.; Virgillito, M.E. (2021)
Lockdown and vaccination policies have been the major concern in the last year in order to contain the SARS-CoV-2 infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we present a model able to evaluate alternative lockdown ...
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Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections
Saldaña, F.; Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2023-04-15)
The burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) poses a challenge due to its large negative impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Besides simple prevention measures and available treatment efforts, ...
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Reproduction ratio and growth rates: Measures for an unfolding pandemic
Aguiar, M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-05)
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure that follows directly from data at hand, commonly used to infer the basic reproduction number. As the growth rates λ(t) of tested positive COVID-19 ...
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The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID-19 vaccines performance: A modeling study
Aguiar, M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar, J; Stollenwerk, N. (2021-11-16)
Introduction: Different COVID-19 vaccine efficacies are reported, with remarkable effectiveness against severe disease. The so called sterilizing immunity, occurring when vaccinated individuals cannot transmit the virus, ...
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Seasonally Forced SIR Systems Applied to Respiratory Infectious Diseases, Bifurcations, and Chaos
Stollenwerk, N.; Spaziani, S.; Mar, J.; Knopoff, D.A.; Cusimano, N.; Anam, V.; Aguiar, M.; Eguiguren, I.; Srivastav, A. K. (2022-03-03)
We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models ...
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SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID-19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020)
We review basic models of severe/hospitalized and mild/asymptomatic infection spreading (with classes of susceptibles S, hopsitalized H, asymptomatic A and recovered R, hence SHAR-models) and develop the notion of comparing ...
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Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission
Knopoff, D.A.; Cusimano, N.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2022-02-13)
Mathematical models play an important role in epidemiology. The inclusion of a spatial component in epidemiological models is especially important to understand and address many relevant ecological and public health ...
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Understanding COVID-19 Epidemics: A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach
Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Cusimano, N.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N. (2022-02-18)
COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in March 2020 and, since then, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease ...