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+34 946 567 842
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+34 946 567 842
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maguiar@bcamath.org
Information of interest
I am a biologist by training, highly trained in nonlinear dynamics, bifurcation analysis and biostatistics. Using methods from dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes, my work consists of developing and analyzing descriptive and predictive models of infectious diseases, addressing significant mathematical problems and fundamental
questions in biology, which require a highly interdisciplinary/multidisciplinary approach.
With special focus on the study of dengue fever (and other vector borne diseases) and its dynamics, I develop mathematical models to identify possible approaches to control disease transmission and for assessing the potential impact of different intervention measures.
My research interests are focused on public health epidemiology with emphasis on: i) Epidemiological dynamics of multi-strain infectious diseases; ii) Interplay between pathogen serotypes and cross-immunity; iii) Epidemiological dynamics of vaccine preventable diseases; iv) Epidemiological dynamics of vector-pathogen-host interaction; v) Within-host dynamics focusing on immune responses; vi) Complex dynamics, empirical data analysis and public health intervention measures.
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The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions
Estadilla, C.D.
; Cicolani, C.; Blasco-Aguado, R.; Saldaña, F.; Borri, A.; Mar, J.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2025-03-14)
Background In response to the rapid global transmission of COVID-19, governments worldwide enacted lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to control the disease. In this study, we aim to quantify the ...
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Population and within-host dynamics of biological systems
Pinto, C.; Aguiar, M.; Rozhnova, G.; D'Onofrio, A. (2025-02-01)
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Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the Basque Country: characterizing population immunity profile from 2020 to 2022
Naffeti, B.; Ounissi, Z.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Bidaurrazaga Van Dierdonck, J.; Aguiar, M. (2025-01-02)
Background: COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has spread globally, presenting a signifcant public health challenge. Vaccination has played a critical role in reducing severe disease and deaths. However, the waning of immunity ...
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Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
Saldaña, F.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2024-10-30)
Understanding virus mutations is critical for shaping public health interventions. These mutations lead to complex multi-strain dynamics often under-represented in models. Aiming to understand the factors influencing ...
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Beyond the biting - limited impact of explicit mosquito dynamics in dengue models
Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Kooi, B.W.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2024-10-01)
Mathematical models play a crucial role in assisting public health authorities in timely disease control decision-making. For vector-borne diseases, integrating host and vector dynamics into models can be highly complex, ...
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Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling
Estadilla, C.D.; Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2024-08-26)
COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing severe symptoms and fatalities, although their effectiveness in preventing transmission varies depending on the population’s age profile and the dominant ...
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Bifurcation analysis of a two infection SIR-SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity and disease enhancement
Aguiar, M.; Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Kooi, B. W. (2024-08-01)
In this paper we study a two infection SIR-SIR compartmental model, considering biological features described in dengue fever epidemiology. Due to a progressive loss of protective antibodies there is waning immunity in the ...
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Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern
Saldaña, F.; Stollenwerk, N.; Bidaurrazaga Van Dierdonck, J.; Aguiar, M. (2024-04-29)
The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from ...
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Dynamics of vector-borne diseases through the lens of systems incorporating fractional-order derivatives
Skwara, U.; Mozyrska, D.; Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2024-04-01)
This paper explores the dynamics of vector-borne diseases transmitted by mosquitoes through the lens of systems incorporating fractional-order derivatives. Specifically, we extend the classical SISUV and SIRUV models by ...
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Within-host models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections
Anam, V.; Guerrero, B.V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2024-02-07)
Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong immunity prevents ...
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Evolutionary Virus Pandemics: From Modeling and Simulations to Society
Aguiar, M.; Bellomo, N.; Chaplain, M. (2024-01-01)
This chapter provides an introduction to the contents of this edited volume which is devoted to the modeling and simulation of mutating virus pandemics in a globally interconnected world. First, we report on the motivations ...
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Symmetry in a multi-strain epidemiological model with distributed delay as a general cross-protection period and disease enhancement factor
Steindorf, V.; Oliva, S.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2024-01)
Important biological features of viral infectious diseases caused by multiple agents with interacting strain dynamics continue to pose challenges for mathematical modelling development. Motivated by dengue fever epidemiology, ...
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Optimal vaccination strategies for a heterogenous population using multiple objectives: The case of L1 and L2-formulations
Saldaña, F.; Kebir, A.; Camacho-Gutiérrez, J. A.; Aguiar, M. (2023-12)
The choice of the objective functional in optimization problems coming from biomedical and epidemiological applications plays a key role in optimal control outcomes. In this study, we investigate the role of the objective ...
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Cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccines for COVID-19 according to sex, comorbidity and socioeconomics status: a population study
Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Estadilla, C.D.; Stollenwerk, N.; Antoñanzas, F.; Blasco, R.; Larrañaga, I.; Bidaurrazaga, J.; Aguiar, M. (2023-11-01)
Background and Objective Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are extremely effective in preventing severe disease, but their real-world cost-effectiveness is still an open question. We present an analysis of the ...
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Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
Saldaña, F.; Daza-Torres, M. L.; Aguiar, M. (2023-09-13)
Objective: To estimate the instantaneous reproduction number $R_t$ and the epidemic growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreaks in the European region. Methods: We gathered daily laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in ...
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Prescriptive, descriptive or predictive models: What approach should be taken when empirical data is limited? Reply to comments on “Mathematical models for Dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review”
Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Blyuss, K.; Estadilla, C.D.; Guerrero, B.V.; Knopoff, D.A.; Kooi, B.W.; Mateus, L.; Srivastav, A.K.; Steindorf, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (2023-09-01)
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The effects of public health measures on severe dengue cases: An optimal control approach
Srivastav, A.K.; Steindarf, V.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2023-07)
Dengue fever is the most important viral mosquito-borne disease worldwide, with approximately 3.9 billion people at risk of acquiring dengue infection. Measures against mosquito bite combined with vector control programs ...
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Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections
Saldaña, F.; Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A.K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2023-04-15)
The burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) poses a challenge due to its large negative impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Besides simple prevention measures and available treatment efforts, ...
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The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study
Stollenwerk, N.; Estadilla, C. D. S.; Mar, J.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Blasco-Aguado, R.; Aguiar, M. (2023-03-10)
Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy (VE) is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact. COVID-19 ...
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Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models
Steindorf, V.; Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Kooi, B. W.; Aguiar, M. (2022-10-04)
Modeling insights for epidemiological scenarios characterized by chaotic dynamics have been largely unexplored. A rigorous analysis of such systems are essential for a real predictive power and a more accurate disease ...
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Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain
Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Aguiar, M. (2022-07-13)
Declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the globe. With eventually substantial global underestimation of infection, by the end of March 2022, more than 470 million ...
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Modeling Dengue Immune Responses Mediated by Antibodies: Insights on the Biological Parameters to Describe Dengue Infections
Anam, V.; Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N.; Soewono, E.; Aguiar, M. (2022-03-18)
Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne disease, a significant global health concern, with more than one third of the world population at risk of acquiring the disease. Caused by 4 antigenically distinct but related virus ...
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Seasonally Forced SIR Systems Applied to Respiratory Infectious Diseases, Bifurcations, and Chaos
Stollenwerk, N.; Spaziani, S.; Mar, J.; Knopoff, D.A.; Cusimano, N.; Anam, V.; Aguiar, M.; Eguiguren, I.; Srivastav, A. K. (2022-03-03)
We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models ...
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Modelling Holling type II functional response in deterministic and stochastic food chain models with mass conservation
Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Kooi, B. W. (2022-03-01)
The Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model is the building block in modeling food chain, food webs and ecosystems. There are a number of hidden assumptions involved in the derivation. For instance the prey population ...
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Understanding COVID-19 Epidemics: A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach
Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Cusimano, N.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N. (2022-02-18)
COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in March 2020 and, since then, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease ...
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Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: a 10-year systematic review
Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Blyuss, K.; Estadilla, C. D. S.; Guerrero, B.; Knopoff, D.A.; Kooi, B. W.; Srivastav, A. K.; Steindorf, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (2022-02-15)
Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological ...
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Effect of General Cross-Immunity Protection and Antibody- Dependent Enhancement in Dengue Dynamics
Steindorf, V; Oliva, S.; Wu, J.; Aguiar, M. (2022-02-13)
A mathematical model to describe the dynamic of a multiserotype infectious disease at the population level is studied. Applied to dengue fever epidemiology, we analyse a mathematical model with time delay to describe the ...
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Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics of COVID-19: The Case Study of Italy and Spain
Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2022-02-13)
In December 2019, a severe respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in China and spread rapidly around the globe. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization ...
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Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission
Knopoff, D.A.; Cusimano, N.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (2022-02-13)
Mathematical models play an important role in epidemiology. The inclusion of a spatial component in epidemiological models is especially important to understand and address many relevant ecological and public health ...
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Changes in Social and Clinical Determinants of COVID-19 Outcomes Achieved by the Vaccination Program: A Nationwide Cohort Study
Ibarrondo, O.; Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N.; Blasco-Aguado, R.; Larrañaga, I.; Bidaurrazaga, J.; Estadilla, C. D. S.; Mar, J. (2022)
Background: The objective of this study was to assess changes in social and clinical determinants of COVID-19 outcomes associated with the first year of COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the Basque population. Methods: A ...
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The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID-19 vaccines performance: A modeling study
Aguiar, M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar, J; Stollenwerk, N. (2021-11-16)
Introduction: Different COVID-19 vaccine efficacies are reported, with remarkable effectiveness against severe disease. The so called sterilizing immunity, occurring when vaccinated individuals cannot transmit the virus, ...
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Modeling dengue immune responses mediated by antibodies: A qualitative study
Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Anam, V.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Soewono, E. (2021-09-01)
Dengue fever is a viral mosquito-borne infection and a major international public health concern. With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection around the world, disease severity is influenced by the immunological ...
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Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID‑19 post‑lockdown dynamics
Aguiar, M.; BidaurrazagaVan‑Dierdonc, J.; Mar, J.; Cusimano, N.; Knopoff, D.A.; Anam, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (2021-07-06)
As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an ...
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A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination
Aguiar, M.; Dosi, G.; Knopoff, D.A.; Virgillito, M.E. (2021)
Lockdown and vaccination policies have been the major concern in the last year in order to contain the SARS-CoV-2 infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we present a model able to evaluate alternative lockdown ...
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The Impact of Serotype Cross-Protection on Vaccine Trials: DENVax as a Case Study
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-11)
There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease ...
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Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response
Aguiar, M.; Ortuondo, E.M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar J; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-10)
In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so‐called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID‐19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working ...
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Modeling COVID-19: Challenges and results
Aguiar, M. (2020-10)
Weird times we are living in. While lots of technological, medical and scientific advances are generated in a short period of time, we are now fighting a pandemic, trying to stop the spread of a new virus that has not only ...
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Condition-specific mortality risk can explain differences in COVID-19 case fatality ratios around the globe
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-09)
Objectives With COVID-19 infections resulting in death according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing disease severity, the objective of this study is to estimate the condition-specific ...
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Ethics of a partially effective dengue vaccine: Lessons from the Philippines
Halstead, B.S.; Katzelnick, L.C.; Russell, P.K.; Markoff, L.; Aguiar, M.; Dans, L.R.; Dans A , L. (2020-07)
Dengvaxia, a chimeric yellow fever tetravalent dengue vaccine developed by SanofiPasteur is widely licensed in dengue-endemic countries. In a large cohort study Dengvaxia was found to partially protect children who had ...
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Reproduction ratio and growth rates: Measures for an unfolding pandemic
Aguiar, M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-05)
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure that follows directly from data at hand, commonly used to infer the basic reproduction number. As the growth rates λ(t) of tested positive COVID-19 ...
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SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID-19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020)
We review basic models of severe/hospitalized and mild/asymptomatic infection spreading (with classes of susceptibles S, hopsitalized H, asymptomatic A and recovered R, hence SHAR-models) and develop the notion of comparing ...
| Date | Title | Place | Author | Type |
| 2021-02-02 | 12th Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (Virtual) | BCAM Bilbao | News and Events | |
| 2020-02-04 | 11th l Conference on dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences | Dipartimento di Economia e Management of University of Trento, Italy | News and Events |