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+34 946 567 842
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+34 946 567 842
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nstollenwerk@bcamath.org
Information of interest
 Orcid: 0000000193155586
Postdoctoral Fellow at BCAM.

Beyond the biting  limited impact of explicit mosquito dynamics in dengue models
(20241001)Mathematical models play a crucial role in assisting public health authorities in timely disease control decisionmaking. For vectorborne diseases, integrating host and vector dynamics into models can be highly complex, ...

Impact of High Covid19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling
(20240826)COVID19 vaccines have demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing severe symptoms and fatalities, although their effectiveness in preventing transmission varies depending on the population’s age profile and the dominant ...

Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern
(20240429)The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from ...

Complex Network Approaches for Epidemic Modeling: A Case Study of COVID19
(20240301)Since the SARSCoV2 outbreak, the importance of mathematical modeling as a tool for comprehending disease dynamics has been highlighted, with several mathematical modeling techniques being applied and developed to simulate ...

Withinhost models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections
(20240207)Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong immunity prevents ...

Symmetry in a multistrain epidemiological model with distributed delay as a general crossprotection period and disease enhancement factor
(202401)Important biological features of viral infectious diseases caused by multiple agents with interacting strain dynamics continue to pose challenges for mathematical modelling development. Motivated by dengue fever epidemiology, ...

Costeffectiveness analysis of vaccines for COVID19 according to sex, comorbidity and socioeconomics status: a population study
(20231101)Background and Objective Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) vaccines are extremely effective in preventing severe disease, but their realworld costeffectiveness is still an open question. We present an analysis of the ...

The effects of public health measures on severe dengue cases: An optimal control approach
(202307)Dengue fever is the most important viral mosquitoborne disease worldwide, with approximately 3.9 billion people at risk of acquiring dengue infection. Measures against mosquito bite combined with vector control programs ...

Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections
(20230415)The burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) poses a challenge due to its large negative impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Besides simple prevention measures and available treatment efforts, ...

The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study
(20230310)Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy (VE) is not a static measure and longterm population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact. COVID19 ...

Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models
(20221004)Modeling insights for epidemiological scenarios characterized by chaotic dynamics have been largely unexplored. A rigorous analysis of such systems are essential for a real predictive power and a more accurate disease ...

Modeling the initial phase of COVID19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain
(20220713)Declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID19 has spread rapidly around the globe. With eventually substantial global underestimation of infection, by the end of March 2022, more than 470 million ...

Modeling Dengue Immune Responses Mediated by Antibodies: Insights on the Biological Parameters to Describe Dengue Infections
(20220318)Dengue fever is a viral mosquitoborne disease, a significant global health concern, with more than one third of the world population at risk of acquiring the disease. Caused by 4 antigenically distinct but related virus ...

Seasonally Forced SIR Systems Applied to Respiratory Infectious Diseases, Bifurcations, and Chaos
(20220303)We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models ...

Modelling Holling type II functional response in deterministic and stochastic food chain models with mass conservation
(20220301)The RosenzweigMacArthur predatorprey model is the building block in modeling food chain, food webs and ecosystems. There are a number of hidden assumptions involved in the derivation. For instance the prey population ...

Understanding COVID19 Epidemics: A MultiScale Modeling Approach
(20220218)COVID19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in March 2020 and, since then, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease ...

Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: a 10year systematic review
(20220215)Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological ...

Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics of COVID19: The Case Study of Italy and Spain
(20220213)In December 2019, a severe respiratory syndrome (COVID19) caused by a new coronavirus (SARSCoV2) was identified in China and spread rapidly around the globe. COVID19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization ...

Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission
(20220213)Mathematical models play an important role in epidemiology. The inclusion of a spatial component in epidemiological models is especially important to understand and address many relevant ecological and public health ...

Changes in Social and Clinical Determinants of COVID19 Outcomes Achieved by the Vaccination Program: A Nationwide Cohort Study
(2022)Background: The objective of this study was to assess changes in social and clinical determinants of COVID19 outcomes associated with the first year of COVID19 vaccination rollout in the Basque population. Methods: A ...

The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID19 vaccines performance: A modeling study
(20211116)Introduction: Different COVID19 vaccine efficacies are reported, with remarkable effectiveness against severe disease. The so called sterilizing immunity, occurring when vaccinated individuals cannot transmit the virus, ...

Modeling dengue immune responses mediated by antibodies: A qualitative study
(20210901)Dengue fever is a viral mosquitoborne infection and a major international public health concern. With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection around the world, disease severity is influenced by the immunological ...

Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID‑19 post‑lockdown dynamics
(20210706)As the COVID19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an ...

The Impact of Serotype CrossProtection on Vaccine Trials: DENVax as a Case Study
(202011)There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease ...

Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response
(202010)In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so‐called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID‐19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working ...

Conditionspecific mortality risk can explain differences in COVID19 case fatality ratios around the globe
(202009)Objectives With COVID19 infections resulting in death according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and preexisting health conditions enhancing disease severity, the objective of this study is to estimate the conditionspecific ...

Reproduction ratio and growth rates: Measures for an unfolding pandemic
(202005)The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure that follows directly from data at hand, commonly used to infer the basic reproduction number. As the growth rates λ(t) of tested positive COVID19 ...

SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework
(2020)We review basic models of severe/hospitalized and mild/asymptomatic infection spreading (with classes of susceptibles S, hopsitalized H, asymptomatic A and recovered R, hence SHARmodels) and develop the notion of comparing ...