Early Prognosis of COVID-19 Infections via Machine Learning

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BCAM principal investigator: Santiago Mazuelas
BCAM research line(s) involved:
Reference: Mitigating risk in the wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Coordinator: BCAM - Basque Center for Applied Mathematics
Duration: 2020 - 2023
Funding agency: AXA Research Fund
Type: International Project
Status: Ongoing Project


The 2020 COVID-19 outbreak has revealed infections that result in particularly distinct outcomes: certain patients remain asymptomatic during the infection, others experience moderate symptoms for a few weeks, while still others suffer acute or even critical complications. This array of outcomes poses a key challenge for COVID-19 containment, since the most effective countermeasures when infections are detected are markedly different for each type of patient. To address this challenge, Dr. Santiago Mazuelas, an AXA Research Fund grantee at BCAM, will develop machine learning techniques for the early prognosis of COVID-19 infections that predict the future severity of infections using health data obtained at the time the infection is detected. Such predictions could help medical staff and public health stakeholders make timely decisions that could result in favorable outcomes. For instance, an infected patient with a negative (or positive) early prognosis could be directly transferred to semi-intensive care (or a regular hospital ward) before he/she experiences notable symptoms. In addition, the prediction algorithms developed in the project could be used to closely monitor individuals who are not infected but who have a high probability of being asymptomatic or suffering complications if they do contract COVID-19.

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