BCAM develops mathematical models to decipher the dynamics of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena
- Ikerbasque researcher Francesco Fanelli leads a project at BCAM to describe, with mathematical rigour, the behaviour of geophysical fluids such as the atmosphere and the oceans.
- The research focuses on understanding the dynamics of complex structures such as tornadoes, vortices, and areas of turbulence, which are often oversimplified by current models.
- The objective is to lay the theoretical foundations for creating more reliable prediction tools in fields such as meteorology, climatology, and astrophysics.
The movement of ocean currents and air masses in the atmosphere obeys physical laws of enormous complexity. Understanding them is key to predicting everything from the global climate to the formation of a tornado. However, current mathematical models must often simplify reality to remain manageable. A project led by Ikerbasque researcher Francesco Fanelli at BCAM (Basque Center for Applied Mathematics) seeks to overcome these limitations by developing a more rigorous and precise theoretical framework.
The research focuses on "geophysical fluids"—those whose large-scale dynamics are determined by the competition between the force of gravity and the effect of the Earth's rotation (the Coriolis force). The goal is to create models that incorporate crucial factors often omitted today, such as variations in density and temperature, or the interaction of the fluid with the topography of the ocean floor and terrestrial orography.
As Francesco Fanelli explains, the problem lies in the excessive simplification of current models: "The models we use in meteorology today are a necessary simplification, but they often omit crucial details. They are like maps that do not accurately depict mountains or the seabed. By doing so, they lose reliability, making it difficult for them to provide a complete description of the real physical process. Our goal is to understand these issues from a theoretical point of view, using the rigorous instruments of mathematics to build models that capture the missing complexity."
This research by Francesco Fanelli at BCAM is developed along three main lines:
- Incorporate greater physical complexity: The aim is to include thermal effects, density variations, and interaction with non-uniform surfaces into the models.
- Analyse singular structures: The research pays special attention to the dynamics of high-impact phenomena, such as the formation of tornadoes, the evolution of large oceanic vortices, and regions of high turbulence.
- Derive simplified yet robust models: The goal is to obtain, through mathematically rigorous methods, models that are simpler than the full reality but remain reliable and relevant for improving numerical simulations.
While this research is theoretical in nature, its future implications are far-reaching. By providing a deeper understanding of fluid dynamics, it will lay the foundations for a new generation of simulation tools that could revolutionise weather forecasting and the study of climate change. "History is full of examples where basic science has generated practical contributions in unexpected ways," concludes Fanelli. "Our work consists of building that fundamental, rigorous, and verified knowledge which will serve as a pillar for the applied advances of tomorrow."
About BCAM
Located in the heart of Bilbao, BCAM is a world-class interdisciplinary research centre in the field of Applied Mathematics. It was founded in 2008 as a Basque Centre of Excellence (BERC). Its focus is on interdisciplinary research in mathematics, as well as the training and recruitment of scientific talent and the promotion of scientific and technological advances worldwide. The centre has been awarded the Severo Ochoa distinction on three occasions (2013, 2018, and 2021), consolidating BCAM as one of the most important institutions in its field in Europe. Currently, more than 180 researchers from 36 countries work at BCAM. BCAM's partners are Ikerbasque, the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), the Provincial Council of Bizkaia, Bilbao City Council, Innobasque, and Petronor Innovación S.L.
